Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing27/37, 277 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler AllgeierRushing17 CAR, 61 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving9 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing17/27, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing12 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:33Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal26–14
- Q411:44Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)23–14
- Q36:03Ladd McConkey 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)16–14
- Q37:25Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q20:00Chad Ryland 44 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q26:51Chad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q14:22Omarion Hampton 8 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–7
- Q18:49Jeremiyah Love 5 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:49Jeremiyah Love 5 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 7 – 0 LAC · ARI 22% → 38% +16ARI 22% → 38%+16 pts
- Q14:22Omarion Hampton 8 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)ARI 7 – 7 LAC · LAC 60% → 77% +17LAC 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q37:25Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field GoalARI 16 – 7 LAC · ARI 55% → 67% +12ARI 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q36:03Ladd McConkey 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)ARI 16 – 14 LAC · LAC 32% → 61% +29LAC 32% → 61%+29 pts
- Q411:44Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 23 – 14 LAC · ARI 47% → 82% +35ARI 47% → 82%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML ARI +370 / LAC -485
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 75.3%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- LAC -383
- ARI +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.5 – 28.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −8 | +10 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +193 Elo | LAC 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 79.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.9 | Points scored | 21.620th of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.7 | Points allowed | 20.09th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.8 | Margin | +1.614th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.16 | Yards per play | 5.1821st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0210th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 4th of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 148029th of 32 |
| 30th of 321388 | Elo rating | 152714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ARI |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.