Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing20/24, 246 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing18 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashee RiceReceiving7 REC, 88 YDS
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing20/36, 210 YDS, 1 INT
- Malik WillisRushing9 CAR, 56 YDS
- Chris BellReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:55Travis Kelce 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)24–10
- Q411:35Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q310:10Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q212:58Kenneth Walker III 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–7
- Q13:27Ollie Gordon II 3 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q112:54Kenneth Walker III 10 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:54Kenneth Walker III 10 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 MIA · KC 81% → 91% +10KC 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q13:27Ollie Gordon II 3 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)KC 7 – 7 MIA · MIA 10% → 21% +11MIA 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q212:58Kenneth Walker III 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 7 MIA · KC 78% → 90% +12KC 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q310:10Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field GoalKC 14 – 10 MIA · MIA 10% → 17% +6MIA 10% → 17%+6 pts
- Q411:35Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field GoalKC 17 – 10 MIA · KC 83% → 92% +9KC 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- KC -10
- ML KC -600 / MIA +440
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -5.5
- KC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- KC: Elo 68.9%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -438
- MIA +438 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 27.8 – 17.8 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +23 | −24 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +138 Elo | KC 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 70.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 81.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.3 | Points scored | 20.425th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.3 | Points allowed | 24.924th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.0 | Margin | −4.524th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.3914th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8026th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 28th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321543 | Elo rating | 141627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  KC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–13 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.