Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing14/23, 197 YDS, 1 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing20 CAR, 74 YDS
- Ryan MillerReceiving1 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing20/22, 287 YDS, 2 TD
- Brock PurdyRushing3 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:30Ryan Miller 77 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Riley Patterson Kick)13–35
- Q33:10Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)6–35
- Q35:46Kyle Juszczyk 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)6–28
- Q313:08George Kittle 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)6–21
- Q20:00Riley Patterson 24 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q25:24Brock Purdy 2 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)3–14
- Q29:56Riley Patterson 28 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q14:17Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:17Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)MIA 0 – 7 SF · SF 84% → 93% +9SF 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q29:56Riley Patterson 28 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 7 SF · MIA 8% → 12% +4MIA 8% → 12%+4 pts
- Q25:24Brock Purdy 2 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)MIA 3 – 14 SF · SF 88% → 96% +8SF 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q20:00Riley Patterson 24 Yd Field GoalMIA 6 – 14 SF · MIA 4% → 7% +3MIA 4% → 7%+3 pts
- Q313:08George Kittle 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)MIA 6 – 21 SF · SF 93% → 98% +5SF 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- SF -12.5
- ML MIA +600 / SF -900
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -10.5
- SF 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SF: Elo 82.2%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -616
- MIA +616 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 16.0 – 28.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −32 | +29 | MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +266 Elo | SF 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 81.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 86.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.4 | Points scored | 25.710th of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 21.813th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.5 | Margin | +3.99th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.39 | Yards per play | 5.5211th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.80 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6324th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 24th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 32 |
| 25th of 321428 | Elo rating | 15975th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.