San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing25/34, 205 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing10 CAR, 68 YDS
- Demarcus RobinsonReceiving2 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing15/25, 155 YDS, 1 INT
- Blake CorumRushing10 CAR, 54 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving5 REC, 74 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:43Eddy Pineiro 56 Yd Field Goal27–7
- Q412:57Deebo Samuel Sr. 15 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)24–7
- Q311:03Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)17–7
- Q24:28Demarcus Robinson 39 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–7
- Q214:57Kyren Williams 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)3–7
- Q16:15Eddy Pineiro 20 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:15Eddy Pineiro 20 Yd Field GoalSF 3 – 0 LAR · SF 36% → 44% +8SF 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q214:57Kyren Williams 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)SF 3 – 7 LAR · LAR 54% → 73% +19LAR 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q24:28Demarcus Robinson 39 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 10 – 7 LAR · SF 27% → 48% +22SF 27% → 48%+22 pts
- Q311:03Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 17 – 7 LAR · SF 51% → 76% +25SF 51% → 76%+25 pts
- Q412:57Deebo Samuel Sr. 15 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 24 – 7 LAR · SF 88% → 98% +10SF 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML SF +180 / LAR -218
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -1
- LAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- LAR: Elo 53.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- LAR -185
- SF +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 22.0 – 25.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | +5 | SF: Brock Purdy · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +24 Elo | LAR 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 56.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 64.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 30.51st of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 20.410th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+3.9 | Margin | +10.12nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 6.181st of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1914th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15145th of 32 |
| 9th of 321556 | Elo rating | 16064th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  SF |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–4 LAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.