Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing30/36, 305 YDS, 1 TD
- Roschon JohnsonRushing13 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving8 REC, 95 YDS
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing19/33, 225 YDS, 3 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing9 CAR, 61 YDS
- Jahan DotsonReceiving3 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:41Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion)31–23
- Q49:34Kyle Pitts Sr. 10 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)31–15
- Q414:56Cairo Santos 50 Yd Field Goal31–7
- Q31:48Roschon Johnson 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)28–7
- Q21:26D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)21–7
- Q25:45Jahan Dotson 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)14–7
- Q11:07D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)14–0
- Q18:15Colston Loveland 14 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:15Colston Loveland 14 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 ATL · CHI 52% → 70% +18CHI 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q11:07D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 14 – 0 ATL · CHI 71% → 85% +14CHI 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q25:45Jahan Dotson 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)CHI 14 – 7 ATL · ATL 12% → 27% +15ATL 12% → 27%+15 pts
- Q21:26D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 21 – 7 ATL · CHI 74% → 90% +15CHI 74% → 90%+15 pts
- Q45:41Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion)CHI 31 – 23 ATL · ATL <1% → 5% +5ATL <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bears 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML CHI -120 / ATL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- CHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 54.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -110
- ATL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 27.0 – 25.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Elo ratings | CHI +30 Elo | CHI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 52.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 23.814th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 24.421st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.6 | Margin | −0.619th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.36 | Yards per play | 5.849th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.028th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 32 |
| 10th of 321572 | Elo rating | 146619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.