Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing23/36, 287 YDS, 3 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing12 CAR, 53 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving5 REC, 101 YDS
Falcons- Cooper RushPassing10/17, 86 YDS, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing16 CAR, 72 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q32:58Devin Lloyd 16 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)34–3
- Q39:38Darren Waller 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)27–3
- Q20:20Darren Waller 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)20–3
- Q21:07Nick Folk 41 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q25:54Ryan Fitzgerald 25 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q14:29Ryan Fitzgerald 37 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q110:48Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:48Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 7 – 0 ATL · CAR 55% → 72% +17CAR 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q14:29Ryan Fitzgerald 37 Yd Field GoalCAR 10 – 0 ATL · CAR 73% → 79% +6CAR 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q25:54Ryan Fitzgerald 25 Yd Field GoalCAR 13 – 0 ATL · CAR 82% → 88% +6CAR 82% → 88%+6 pts
- Q21:07Nick Folk 41 Yd Field GoalCAR 13 – 3 ATL · ATL 11% → 16% +6ATL 11% → 16%+6 pts
- Q20:20Darren Waller 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 20 – 3 ATL · CAR 84% → 95% +11CAR 84% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -2.5
- ML CAR -142 / ATL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- CAR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 47.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -126
- ATL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 23.0 – 20.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −65 | CAR: Bryce Young · ATL: Cooper Rush, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +17 Elo | ATL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 20.824th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 23.619th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.1 | Margin | −2.821st of 32 |
| 26th of 324.97 | Yards per play | 5.4013th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2816th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321396 | Elo rating | 144820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CAR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–2 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.