Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing15/20, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving5 REC, 96 YDS
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing30/48, 286 YDS, 1 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing7 CAR, 23 YDS, 2 TD
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 116 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:13Devaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)45–24
- Q46:52Brian Robinson Jr. 11 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)45–17
- Q49:50Jahan Dotson 31 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)38–17
- Q413:00Alvin Kamara 5 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)31–17
- Q32:11Brian Robinson Jr. 8 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)31–10
- Q37:38Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q23:07Nick Folk 29 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q28:59Brian Robinson Jr. 4 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)21–7
- Q214:57Alvin Kamara 3 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–7
- Q10:48Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)14–0
- Q113:34Bijan Robinson 59 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:34Bijan Robinson 59 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 7 – 0 NO · ATL 49% → 66% +17ATL 49% → 66%+17 pts
- Q10:48Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 14 – 0 NO · ATL 68% → 84% +15ATL 68% → 84%+15 pts
- Q214:57Alvin Kamara 3 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)ATL 14 – 7 NO · NO 16% → 32% +15NO 16% → 32%+15 pts
- Q28:59Brian Robinson Jr. 4 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 21 – 7 NO · ATL 70% → 86% +16ATL 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q32:11Brian Robinson Jr. 8 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 31 – 10 NO · ATL 95% → >99% +4ATL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML ATL -105 / NO -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- NO: Elo 55.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 23.5 – 25.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | −4 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · NO: Tyler Shough (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +38 Elo | NO 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 51.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 27.010th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 27.728th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.7 | Margin | −0.716th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.38 | Yards per play | 5.1717th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3215th of 32 |
| 8th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
| 24th of 321470 | Opponent Elo | 149716th of 32 |
| 21st of 321463 | Elo rating | 146420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 5–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.