Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing18/25, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing29 CAR, 194 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving9 REC, 194 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing28/53, 312 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- MarShawn LloydRushing4 CAR, 11 YDS
- Matthew GoldenReceiving5 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:33Bijan Robinson 2 Yd Rush (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Chris Blair for Two-Point Conversion)35–14
- Q48:18Matthew Golden 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)27–14
- Q410:57Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal27–7
- Q33:38Brian Robinson Jr. 7 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)24–7
- Q20:59Austin Hooper 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)17–7
- Q24:48Nick Folk 44 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q11:32Bijan Robinson 3 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)7–7
- Q15:13Christian Watson 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:13Christian Watson 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)ATL 0 – 7 GB · GB 66% → 82% +15GB 66% → 82%+15 pts
- Q11:32Bijan Robinson 3 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 7 – 7 GB · ATL 18% → 34% +16ATL 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q24:48Nick Folk 44 Yd Field GoalATL 10 – 7 GB · ATL 36% → 46% +10ATL 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q20:59Austin Hooper 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 17 – 7 GB · ATL 47% → 71% +23ATL 47% → 71%+23 pts
- Q33:38Brian Robinson Jr. 7 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 24 – 7 GB · ATL 81% → 95% +14ATL 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- GB -4.5
- ML ATL +195 / GB -238
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -7
- GB 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- GB: Elo 72.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- GB -212
- ATL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 19.5 – 24.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −6 | +16 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +170 Elo | GB 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 73.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 67.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 23.016th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 21.211th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.8 | Margin | +1.813th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.40 | Yards per play | 5.6010th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.009th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 151113th of 32 |
| 29th of 321402 | Elo rating | 151516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATL |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 GB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.