Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Case KeenumPassing11/19, 108 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing9 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving4 REC, 47 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing25/31, 367 YDS, 2 TD
- MarShawn LloydRushing10 CAR, 31 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving6 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:55MarShawn Lloyd 4 Yd Rush (Jordan Love Pass to Matthew Golden for Two-Point Conversion)7–31
- Q31:58Trey Smack 35 Yd Field Goal7–23
- Q313:10Christian Watson 53 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack PAT Failed)7–20
- Q21:53D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)7–14
- Q214:56MarShawn Lloyd 7 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)0–14
- Q15:51Christian Watson 42 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:51Christian Watson 42 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)CHI 0 – 7 GB · GB 46% → 65% +19GB 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q214:56MarShawn Lloyd 7 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)CHI 0 – 14 GB · GB 66% → 82% +16GB 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q21:53D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 14 GB · CHI 13% → 30% +17CHI 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q313:10Christian Watson 53 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack PAT Failed)CHI 7 – 20 GB · GB 72% → 87% +15GB 72% → 87%+15 pts
- Q31:58Trey Smack 35 Yd Field GoalCHI 7 – 23 GB · GB 93% → 97% +4GB 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML CHI -130 / GB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -118
- GB +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 24.0 – 22.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −95 | +14 | CHI: Tyson Bagent, usually Caleb Williams · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +7 Elo | CHI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 51.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 54.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3228.0 | Points scored | 18.328th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216.3 | Points allowed | 26.323rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.8 | Margin | −8.029th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.2316th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.88 | Yards allowed per play | 4.997th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 148819th of 32 |
| 6th of 321614 | Elo rating | 146121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHI |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–4 GB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.