Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing22/30, 197 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kaleb JohnsonRushing8 CAR, 42 YDS
- Christian WatsonReceiving3 REC, 47 YDS
Buccaneers- Jalon DanielsPassing19/27, 148 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing16 CAR, 61 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving4 REC, 37 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:49Kenny Gainwell 10 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–14
- Q310:32Tucker Kraft 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)17–7
- Q20:00Trey Smack 58 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q25:13Sean Tucker 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q212:54Matthew Golden 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:54Matthew Golden 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 7 – 0 TB · GB 57% → 76% +19GB 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q25:13Sean Tucker 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)GB 7 – 7 TB · TB 23% → 43% +20TB 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q20:00Trey Smack 58 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 7 TB · GB 56% → 66% +10GB 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q310:32Tucker Kraft 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 17 – 7 TB · GB 67% → 87% +20GB 67% → 87%+20 pts
- Q414:49Kenny Gainwell 10 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Chase McLaughlin Kick)GB 17 – 14 TB · TB 8% → 31% +23TB 8% → 31%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -2.5
- ML GB -148 / TB +124
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -8
- GB 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +19.1 pts
- GB: Elo 76.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- GB -143
- TB +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 20.5 – 18.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | −174 | GB: Jordan Love · TB: Jalon Daniels, usually Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +203 Elo | GB 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 75.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 58.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3218.7 | Points scored | 20.719th of 32 |
| 30th of 3230.3 | Points allowed | 26.324th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−11.7 | Margin | −5.724th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 4.7128th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 4.909th of 32 |
| 7th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–221st of 32 |
| 19th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15457th of 32 |
| 21st of 321454 | Elo rating | 140528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  GB |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–11 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.