Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kyler MurrayPassing15/29, 168 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing17 CAR, 58 YDS
- Jordan AddisonReceiving5 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing17/34, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing15 CAR, 46 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:33Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal23–16
- Q43:10Will Reichard 56 Yd Field Goal20–16
- Q49:02Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q37:12Chase McLaughlin 38 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q24:11Jordan Addison 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)17–10
- Q25:33Chase McLaughlin 28 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q16:44Ted Hurst III 40 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–7
- Q18:43Myles Price 86 Yd Punt Return (Will Reichard Kick)10–0
- Q110:20Will Reichard 54 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:43Myles Price 86 Yd Punt Return (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 10 – 0 TB · MIN 59% → 76% +17MIN 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q16:44Ted Hurst III 40 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)MIN 10 – 7 TB · TB 24% → 41% +17TB 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q24:11Jordan Addison 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 17 – 10 TB · MIN 51% → 73% +22MIN 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q49:02Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field GoalMIN 17 – 16 TB · TB 25% → 43% +18TB 25% → 43%+18 pts
- Q43:10Will Reichard 56 Yd Field GoalMIN 20 – 16 TB · MIN 61% → 87% +25MIN 61% → 87%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- TB -1.5
- ML MIN -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +30.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.5%, market 48.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -106
- TB +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 20.5 – 22.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +48 | — | MIN: Kyler Murray, usually J.J. McCarthy · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +236 Elo | MIN 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 22.418th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 24.220th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −1.819th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.90 | Yards per play | 5.1025th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7325th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 11th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 151210th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321638 | Elo rating | 141428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.