Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Tyler HuntleyPassing24/32, 201 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 102 YDS
- Rashod BatemanReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing19/32, 240 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing17 CAR, 86 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving7 REC, 118 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT2:57Tyler Huntley 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)30–23
- Q40:40Devontez Walker 7 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Derrick Henry Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–23
- Q42:31Nick Folk 48 Yd Field Goal15–23
- Q48:03Nick Folk 34 Yd Field Goal15–20
- Q36:53Derrick Henry 18 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–17
- Q39:51Nick Folk 23 Yd Field Goal9–17
- Q20:00Tyler Loop 51 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q22:24Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)6–14
- Q28:04Tyler Loop 51 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q18:03Jessie Bates III 36 Yd Fumble Return (Nick Folk Kick)3–7
- Q110:27Tyler Loop 21 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:03Jessie Bates III 36 Yd Fumble Return (Nick Folk Kick)BAL 3 – 7 ATL · ATL 53% → 70% +18ATL 53% → 70%+18 pts
- Q22:24Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)BAL 6 – 14 ATL · ATL 62% → 81% +20ATL 62% → 81%+20 pts
- Q36:53Derrick Henry 18 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 15 – 17 ATL · BAL 16% → 35% +19BAL 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q40:40Devontez Walker 7 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Derrick Henry Run for Two-Point Conversion)BAL 23 – 23 ATL · BAL <1% → 49% +49BAL <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT2:57Tyler Huntley 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 30 – 23 ATL · BAL 47% → 97% +50BAL 47% → 97%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3
- ML BAL +142 / ATL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 72.3%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -159
- BAL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 20.8 – 23.8 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −184 | 0 | BAL: Tyler Huntley, usually Lamar Jackson · ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +166 Elo | ATL 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 70.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3229.0 | Points scored | 24.013th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 23.020th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+5.0 | Margin | +1.013th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.61 | Yards per play | 5.868th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.13 | Yards allowed per play | 4.897th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321383 | Opponent Elo | 147225th of 32 |
| 11th of 321561 | Elo rating | 150716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.