Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing15/20, 186 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing26 CAR, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/40, 276 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing19 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 112 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Tyler Loop 56 Yd Field Goal34–31
- Q40:07Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q41:30Matthew Hibner 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)31–28
- Q49:42KaVontae Turpin 9 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–28
- Q31:48Jake Ferguson 19 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q33:44Chris Moore 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)24–13
- Q20:18Brandon Aubrey 38 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q24:44Tyler Loop 27 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q211:23Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)14–10
- Q11:18Derrick Henry 4 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–10
- Q14:32Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–10
- Q18:10Brandon Aubrey 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:48Jake Ferguson 19 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)BAL 24 – 21 DAL · DAL 8% → 31% +24DAL 8% → 31%+24 pts
- Q49:42KaVontae Turpin 9 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)BAL 24 – 28 DAL · DAL 28% → 70% +42DAL 28% → 70%+42 pts
- Q41:30Matthew Hibner 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 31 – 28 DAL · BAL 6% → 89% +83BAL 6% → 89%+83 pts
- Q40:07Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field GoalBAL 31 – 31 DAL · DAL <1% → 50% +50DAL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q40:00Tyler Loop 56 Yd Field GoalBAL 34 – 31 DAL · BAL 54% → 100% +46BAL 54% → 100%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -3
- ML BAL -162 / DAL +136
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -4
- BAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 64.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -148
- DAL +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 28.8 – 25.8 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | +23 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +106 Elo | BAL 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 27.77th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 30.132nd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −2.420th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.80 | Yards per play | 5.954th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1431st of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 148327th of 32 |
| 12th of 321543 | Elo rating | 144023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BAL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.