Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing22/34, 175 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving5 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing23/29, 230 YDS, 3 TD
- Cam SkatteboRushing18 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving8 REC, 78 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:21Javonte Williams 17 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey PAT Failed)20–28
- Q47:26Devin Singletary 9 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick)14–28
- Q30:37Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–21
- Q36:59Isaiah Likely 2 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–21
- Q20:20Isaiah Likely 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q25:44CeeDee Lamb 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–7
- Q16:40Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:40Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)DAL 0 – 7 NYG · NYG 42% → 60% +19NYG 42% → 60%+19 pts
- Q25:44CeeDee Lamb 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 7 NYG · DAL 35% → 57% +22DAL 35% → 57%+22 pts
- Q20:20Isaiah Likely 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick)DAL 7 – 14 NYG · NYG 43% → 68% +24NYG 43% → 68%+24 pts
- Q36:59Isaiah Likely 2 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick)DAL 7 – 21 NYG · NYG 72% → 91% +18NYG 72% → 91%+18 pts
- Q30:37Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 21 NYG · DAL 5% → 23% +17DAL 5% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3
- ML DAL -166 / NYG +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -0.5
- DAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -145
- NYG +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 25.3 – 22.3 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | +4 | DAL: Dak Prescott · NYG: Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +10 Elo | NYG 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3227.7 | Points scored | 22.417th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3230.1 | Points allowed | 25.826th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.4 | Margin | −3.422nd of 32 |
| 4th of 325.95 | Yards per play | 5.2220th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.14 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8027th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–6 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 150713th of 32 |
| 26th of 321428 | Elo rating | 142127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DAL |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–4 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–1 NYG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.