Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Joe MiltonPassing7/13, 73 YDS, 1 INT
- Jaydon BlueRushing16 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- Ryan FlournoyReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing22/32, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 103 YDS
- Gunner OlszewskiReceiving8 REC, 102 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:47Devin Singletary 6 Yd Rush (Ben Sauls Kick)17–34
- Q49:23Ben Sauls 30 Yd Field Goal17–27
- Q414:57Phil Mafah 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–24
- Q39:48Tyrone Tracy Jr. 13 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Devin Singletary Pass to Darius Slayton for Two-Point Conversion)10–24
- Q20:20Daniel Bellinger 29 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Ben Sauls Kick)10–16
- Q29:45Ben Sauls 23 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q10:28Jaydon Blue 14 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–6
- Q11:17Ben Sauls 35 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q15:21Brandon Aubrey 22 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:15Ben Sauls 45 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:28Jaydon Blue 14 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 6 NYG · DAL 50% → 70% +19DAL 50% → 70%+19 pts
- Q20:20Daniel Bellinger 29 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Ben Sauls Kick)DAL 10 – 16 NYG · NYG 39% → 64% +24NYG 39% → 64%+24 pts
- Q39:48Tyrone Tracy Jr. 13 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Devin Singletary Pass to Darius Slayton for Two-Point Conversion)DAL 10 – 24 NYG · NYG 66% → 89% +22NYG 66% → 89%+22 pts
- Q414:57Phil Mafah 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 24 NYG · DAL 5% → 23% +17DAL 5% → 23%+17 pts
- Q49:23Ben Sauls 30 Yd Field GoalDAL 17 – 27 NYG · NYG 84% → 93% +9NYG 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3
- ML DAL -166 / NYG +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -151
- NYG +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 26.8 – 23.8 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | +1 | DAL: Dak Prescott · NYG: Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +94 Elo | DAL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.4 | Points scored | 21.721st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.8 | Points allowed | 26.426th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.4 | Margin | −4.724th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.98 | Yards per play | 5.2122nd of 32 |
| 31st of 326.19 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8327th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 32 |
| 27th of 321475 | Opponent Elo | 15198th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321440 | Elo rating | 133429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–0 NYG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.