Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing11/16, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- Jayden DanielsRushing7 CAR, 69 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving2 REC, 50 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing26/31, 279 YDS, 4 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 30 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving8 REC, 153 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:07CeeDee Lamb 24 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)20–37
- Q49:03Stefon Diggs 20 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick)20–30
- Q413:22Brandon Aubrey 60 Yd Field Goal13–30
- Q36:32Jake Ferguson 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–27
- Q37:20Brandon Aubrey 44 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q312:50Drew Stevens 47 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q26:37Stefon Diggs 4 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)10–17
- Q29:55Jake Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–17
- Q213:14Drew Stevens 27 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q15:01Brandon Aubrey 25 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:01CeeDee Lamb 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:01CeeDee Lamb 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 64% → 80% +15DAL 64% → 80%+15 pts
- Q29:55Jake Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 3 – 17 DAL · DAL 80% → 92% +11DAL 80% → 92%+11 pts
- Q26:37Stefon Diggs 4 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)WSH 10 – 17 DAL · WSH 8% → 19% +12WSH 8% → 19%+12 pts
- Q37:20Brandon Aubrey 44 Yd Field GoalWSH 13 – 20 DAL · DAL 74% → 83% +9DAL 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q36:32Jake Ferguson 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 13 – 27 DAL · DAL 83% → 96% +12DAL 83% → 96%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML WSH +185 / DAL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1
- DAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 46.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -186
- WSH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 23.5 – 28.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +40 | +23 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +22 Elo | WSH 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.9 | Points scored | 27.77th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.5 | Points allowed | 30.132nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.6 | Margin | −2.420th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 5.954th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.02 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1431st of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–3–117th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 32 |
| 20th of 321443 | Elo rating | 140129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–5 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.