Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing20/31, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing16 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- Carnell TateReceiving9 REC, 145 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing15/20, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing23 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving8 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:12Wan'Dale Robinson 3 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Cam Ward Pass to Gunnar Helm for Two-Point Conversion)18–24
- Q36:52Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q20:00Tyler Loop 64 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q23:32Mark Andrews 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)7–21
- Q212:16Zay Flowers 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)7–14
- Q15:56Tony Pollard 3 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)7–7
- Q112:09Derrick Henry 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:09Derrick Henry 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)TEN 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 85% → 93% +8BAL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- Q15:56Tony Pollard 3 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 7 – 7 BAL · TEN 7% → 17% +9TEN 7% → 17%+9 pts
- Q212:16Zay Flowers 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)TEN 7 – 14 BAL · BAL 81% → 92% +11BAL 81% → 92%+11 pts
- Q23:32Mark Andrews 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)TEN 7 – 21 BAL · BAL 92% → 98% +6BAL 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q20:00Tyler Loop 64 Yd Field GoalTEN 7 – 24 BAL · BAL 98% → 99% +1BAL 98% → 99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -11.5
- ML TEN +550 / BAL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -12.5
- BAL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 86.1%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -581
- TEN +581 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 15.0 – 26.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1296 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +26 | TEN: Cam Ward · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +317 Elo | BAL 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 85.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 85.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3212.3 | Points scored | 30.74th of 32 |
| 10th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 26.021st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.3 | Margin | +4.710th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.76 | Yards per play | 6.722nd of 32 |
| 8th of 324.90 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1311th of 32 |
| 17th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 32 |
| 28th of 321437 | Opponent Elo | 145627th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321296 | Elo rating | 155511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TEN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.