Tennessee Titans at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing23/36, 181 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing17 CAR, 74 YDS
- Carnell TateReceiving6 REC, 58 YDS
Giants- Jameis WinstonPassing14/22, 118 YDS
- Cam SkatteboRushing20 CAR, 60 YDS
- Cam SkatteboReceiving3 REC, 40 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:35Wan'Dale Robinson 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)7–12
- Q36:56Dominic Zvada 30 Yd Field Goal0–12
- Q20:00Dominic Zvada 39 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q24:49Dominic Zvada 27 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q16:34Dominic Zvada 39 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:34Dominic Zvada 39 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 NYG · NYG 56% → 63% +8NYG 56% → 63%+8 pts
- Q24:49Dominic Zvada 27 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 6 NYG · NYG 64% → 73% +9NYG 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q20:00Dominic Zvada 39 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 9 NYG · NYG 74% → 82% +8NYG 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q36:56Dominic Zvada 30 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 12 NYG · NYG 85% → 91% +6NYG 85% → 91%+6 pts
- Q45:35Wan'Dale Robinson 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 7 – 12 NYG · TEN <1% → 14% +13TEN <1% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NYG -2.5
- ML TEN +114 / NYG -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -4.5
- NYG 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.0 pts
- NYG: Elo 66.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYG -127
- TEN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 17.5 – 20.0 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1311 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −32 | TEN: Cam Ward · NYG: Jameis Winston, usually Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +116 Elo | NYG 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 65.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYG 56.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.7 | Points scored | 22.417th of 32 |
| 28th of 3228.1 | Points allowed | 25.826th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−11.4 | Margin | −3.422nd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.40 | Yards per play | 5.2220th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.81 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8027th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 150811th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321311 | Elo rating | 142625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TEN |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.