New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jameis WinstonPassing11/27, 111 YDS, 1 INT
- Cam SkatteboRushing12 CAR, 36 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving2 REC, 48 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing22/31, 327 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 85 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving8 REC, 195 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:57Terrance Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)6–28
- Q33:49Dominic Zvada 52 Yd Field Goal6–21
- Q36:21Davante Adams 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)3–21
- Q20:25Dominic Zvada 24 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q211:07Kyren Williams 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–14
- Q10:11Davante Adams 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:11Davante Adams 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)NYG 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 70% → 85% +15LAR 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q211:07Kyren Williams 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)NYG 0 – 14 LAR · LAR 85% → 94% +9LAR 85% → 94%+9 pts
- Q20:25Dominic Zvada 24 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 14 LAR · NYG 5% → 8% +3NYG 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q36:21Davante Adams 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)NYG 3 – 21 LAR · LAR 94% → 99% +5LAR 94% → 99%+5 pts
- Q33:49Dominic Zvada 52 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 21 LAR · NYG <1% → 2% +1NYG <1% → 2%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -7
- ML NYG +250 / LAR -310
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -6
- LAR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAR: Elo 70.2%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAR -262
- NYG +262 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.3 – 27.3 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +5 | NYG: Jaxson Dart · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +149 Elo | LAR 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 79.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 72.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 72.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 30.51st of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.8 | Points allowed | 20.410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.4 | Margin | +10.12nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 6.181st of 32 |
| 27th of 325.80 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1914th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–8 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 15147th of 32 |
| 19th of 321448 | Elo rating | 15658th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYG |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 0–1 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.