New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Patriots at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Patriots rate higher (1555 to 1342 Elo), quarterback changes favor the Patriots and the Chargers have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Patriots
Now 53%
58%
with a win
36%
with a loss
This game is worth 22 points of playoff chance to them.
Chargers
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Patriots 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -9
- NE 79%
- Fair odds
- NE -312
- LAC +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NE 25.3 – 17.2 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1342 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | −37 | NE: Drake Maye · LAC: Justin Herbert (65%) or DJ Uiagalelei (35%) (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NE +227 Elo | NE 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 75.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 15.132nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 27.428th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −12.332nd of 32 |
| 5th of 325.97 | Yards per play | 4.6829th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6525th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–3 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 4th of 321542 | Opponent Elo | 15582nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321555 | Elo rating | 134230th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.6 | Offense, adjusted | −2.028th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.9 | Defense, adjusted | +0.116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Patriots
25 listedLan Larison RB
ActiveLarison recorded a four-yard rush and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also recorded two tackles (one solo) on special teams.
Kyle Williams WR
ActiveWilliams failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Eli Raridon TE
ActiveRaridon caught three passes for 52 yards on six targets in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
Doubtfuldoubtful
Charles Woods CB
Questionablequestionable
TreVeyon Henderson RB
Questionablequestionable
A.J. Brown WR
Questionablequestionable
Andy Borregales PK
ActiveBorregales made all three of his PATs in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Ben Brown C
Doubtfuldoubtful
Behren Morton QB
ActiveDametrious Crownover OT
ActiveCorey Kiner RB
ActiveKiner rushed eight times for 55 yards and a touchdown and returned nine kickoffs for 224 yards in the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Chargers
25 listedKeAndre Lambert-Smith WR
ActiveLambert-Smith registered one catch (on four targets) for 50 yards in Sunday's loss to Houston.
Kimani Vidal RB
ActiveVidal rushed seven times for 30 yards in Sunday's 44-22 loss to the Texans. He added one catch for six yards on three targets.
Oronde Gadsden TE
ActiveGadsden caught two of three targets for 17 yards during the Chargers' 44-22 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Charlie Kolar TE
ActiveKolar brought in all three of his targets for 31 yards in a 44-22 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Justin Herbert QB
QuestionableChargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said that Herbert "should be good to go" for Monday's game at Baltimore after imaging on the quarterback's injured left middle finger returned negative for a fracture, ESPN.com reports.
Kendall Williamson S
Questionablequestionable
Brenen Thompson WR
Questionablequestionable
Deane Leonard CB
Questionablequestionable
Kayode Awosika G
Questionablequestionable
Tre' Harris WR
ActiveHarris caught three of seven targets for six yards during Sunday's 44-22 loss to the Texans.
Ladd McConkey WR
QuestionableChargers coach Jim Harbaugh noted Monday that McConkey is viewed as "day to day" with back spasms, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Theo Wease Jr. WR
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5–1 | 0–7–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–5–1 | 0–7–1 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2–1 | 0–5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 1–2 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.