Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing16/27, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing18 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Evan EngramReceiving4 REC, 55 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing14/24, 121 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kimani VidalRushing8 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Charlie KolarReceiving3 REC, 37 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field Goal23–17
- Q45:07Wil Lutz 19 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q48:53Courtland Sutton 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)17–17
- Q30:57Kimani Vidal 42 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–17
- Q35:32Hayden Rucci 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–10
- Q21:48Wil Lutz 34 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q28:18Cameron Dicker 42 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:53J.K. Dobbins 2 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:53J.K. Dobbins 2 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 LAC · DEN 60% → 77% +17DEN 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q35:32Hayden Rucci 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)DEN 10 – 10 LAC · LAC 18% → 43% +26LAC 18% → 43%+26 pts
- Q30:57Kimani Vidal 42 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)DEN 10 – 17 LAC · LAC 44% → 76% +32LAC 44% → 76%+32 pts
- Q48:53Courtland Sutton 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 17 – 17 LAC · DEN 15% → 54% +39DEN 15% → 54%+39 pts
- Q45:07Wil Lutz 19 Yd Field GoalDEN 20 – 17 LAC · DEN 53% → 77% +23DEN 53% → 77%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3
- ML DEN -170 / LAC +142
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 68.6%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -157
- LAC +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 22.8 – 19.8 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +8 | DEN: Bo Nix · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +136 Elo | DEN 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.5 | Points scored | 16.830th of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.5 | Points allowed | 26.524th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.0 | Margin | −9.830th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.87 | Yards per play | 5.0122nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2714th of 32 |
| 24th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 32 |
| 1st of 321611 | Opponent Elo | 15287th of 32 |
| 8th of 321583 | Elo rating | 141124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–3 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.