Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing30/55, 390 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 88 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving7 REC, 137 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing17/34, 186 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing17 CAR, 49 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving3 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:47Bo Nix 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)26–30
- Q43:38Konata Mumpfield 48 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)26–23
- Q44:49Talanoa Hufanga 66 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)19–23
- Q48:40Harrison Mevis 48 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q32:15Nate Adkins 8 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Pat Bryant for Two-Point Conversion)16–16
- Q37:44Pat Bryant 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)16–8
- Q20:00Harrison Mevis 40 Yd Field Goal16–0
- Q24:43Harrison Mevis 35 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q213:17Harrison Mevis 36 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q14:55Tyler Higbee 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:15Nate Adkins 8 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Pat Bryant for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 16 – 16 DEN · DEN 18% → 51% +33DEN 18% → 51%+33 pts
- Q48:40Harrison Mevis 48 Yd Field GoalLAR 19 – 16 DEN · LAR 49% → 68% +19LAR 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q44:49Talanoa Hufanga 66 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)LAR 19 – 23 DEN · DEN 26% → 82% +56DEN 26% → 82%+56 pts
- Q43:38Konata Mumpfield 48 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 26 – 23 DEN · LAR 15% → 77% +62LAR 15% → 77%+62 pts
- Q40:47Bo Nix 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)LAR 26 – 30 DEN · DEN 5% → 99% +94DEN 5% → 99%+94 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML LAR -102 / DEN -118
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 56.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -109
- LAR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 21.5 – 23.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +9 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +42 Elo | DEN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 52.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.5 | Points scored | 23.614th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 18.33rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.1 | Margin | +5.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.18 | Yards per play | 5.3315th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 4.461st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 146431st of 32 |
| 7th of 321586 | Elo rating | 15896th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–8 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.