Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing25/42, 214 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing11 CAR, 40 YDS
- RJ HarveyReceiving10 REC, 68 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/30, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing15 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving5 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:15George Kittle 56 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–24
- Q44:05Jaylen Waddle 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Tyler Badie Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–17
- Q48:52Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)6–17
- Q414:08Wil Lutz 40 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q34:15Deebo Samuel Sr. 1 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)3–10
- Q21:36Eddy Pineiro 24 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q11:43Wil Lutz 52 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:15Deebo Samuel Sr. 1 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)DEN 3 – 10 SF · SF 56% → 82% +26SF 56% → 82%+26 pts
- Q414:08Wil Lutz 40 Yd Field GoalDEN 6 – 10 SF · DEN 15% → 26% +11DEN 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q48:52Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)DEN 6 – 17 SF · SF 77% → 97% +20SF 77% → 97%+20 pts
- Q44:05Jaylen Waddle 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Tyler Badie Run for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 14 – 17 SF · DEN <1% → 22% +21DEN <1% → 22%+21 pts
- Q42:15George Kittle 56 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)DEN 14 – 24 SF · SF 85% → >99% +15SF 85% → >99%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3
- ML DEN +140 / SF -166
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -3
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SF: Elo 60.0%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -150
- DEN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 22.8 – 25.8 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1617 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +31 | DEN: Bo Nix · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +70 Elo | SF 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 60.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.0 | Points scored | 32.71st of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 16.74th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−3.3 | Margin | +16.01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.97 | Yards per play | 7.351st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.844th of 32 |
| 21st of 310–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321594 | Opponent Elo | 145329th of 32 |
| 7th of 321606 | Elo rating | 16175th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DEN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.