Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing19/31, 189 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing9 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Tre' HarrisReceiving3 REC, 60 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing13/22, 168 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Emanuel WilsonRushing21 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving5 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:14Cameron Dicker 36 Yd Field Goal23–30
- Q47:48Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–30
- Q31:19Jason Myers 35 Yd Field Goal13–30
- Q34:53Kimani Vidal 9 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)13–27
- Q310:23Tory Horton 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)6–27
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 39 Yd Field Goal6–20
- Q20:43Emanuel Wilson 8 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)3–20
- Q26:12Rashid Shaheed 28 Yd Rush (Jason Myers PAT Failed)3–13
- Q19:55Emanuel Wilson 23 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)3–7
- Q111:54Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:54Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 0 SEA · LAC 25% → 32% +7LAC 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q19:55Emanuel Wilson 23 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)LAC 3 – 7 SEA · SEA 68% → 82% +14SEA 68% → 82%+14 pts
- Q26:12Rashid Shaheed 28 Yd Rush (Jason Myers PAT Failed)LAC 3 – 13 SEA · SEA 81% → 91% +11SEA 81% → 91%+11 pts
- Q20:43Emanuel Wilson 8 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)LAC 3 – 20 SEA · SEA 92% → 98% +6SEA 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q310:23Tory Horton 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)LAC 6 – 27 SEA · SEA 96% → >99% +3SEA 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -7
- ML LAC +275 / SEA -345
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -13
- SEA 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 86.8%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -309
- LAC +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 18.3 – 25.3 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1694 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +23 | LAC: Justin Herbert · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +327 Elo | SEA 86.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 84.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 75.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3214.7 | Points scored | 25.013th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 16.74th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.7 | Margin | +8.37th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 6.165th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 3.831st of 32 |
| 21st of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 18th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 145828th of 32 |
| 26th of 321417 | Elo rating | 16941st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 15–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.