Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing31/45, 379 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Jadarian PriceRushing5 CAR, 15 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving10 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing19/31, 183 YDS, 3 TD
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing19 CAR, 36 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:51Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)31–33
- Q43:57Kain Medrano 50 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens PAT Failed)24–33
- Q44:34Drew Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q411:53Jaxon Smith-Njigba 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)24–24
- Q36:05Eric Saubert 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)17–24
- Q310:43Terry McLaurin 30 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick)10–24
- Q20:00Drew Stevens 57 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q20:52Jason Myers 57 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q26:47Treylon Burks 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick)7–14
- Q213:27Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q19:08Rachaad White 6 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:05Eric Saubert 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 17 – 24 WSH · SEA 15% → 39% +24SEA 15% → 39%+24 pts
- Q411:53Jaxon Smith-Njigba 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 24 WSH · SEA 26% → 63% +38SEA 26% → 63%+38 pts
- Q44:34Drew Stevens 36 Yd Field GoalSEA 24 – 27 WSH · WSH 42% → 68% +27WSH 42% → 68%+27 pts
- Q43:57Kain Medrano 50 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens PAT Failed)SEA 24 – 33 WSH · WSH 70% → 98% +27WSH 70% → 98%+27 pts
- Q42:51Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 31 – 33 WSH · SEA <1% → 34% +33SEA <1% → 34%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -8.5
- ML SEA -410 / WSH +320
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -13
- SEA 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 86.3%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -354
- WSH +354 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 24.5 – 16.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1722 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | −15 | SEA: Sam Darnold · WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +320 Elo | SEA 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 84.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 78.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.4 | Points scored | 20.922nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.2 | Points allowed | 26.527th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.2 | Margin | −5.627th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 5.4712th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.56 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0230th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–1 | Road vs home | 2–628th of 32 |
| 21st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150416th of 32 |
| 1st of 321722 | Elo rating | 140429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–5 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.