Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Drew LockPassing19/26, 235 YDS, 3 TD
- Emanuel WilsonRushing21 CAR, 92 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving9 REC, 155 YDS, 3 TD
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing17/28, 95 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jeremiyah LoveRushing9 CAR, 29 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving8 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:11AJ Barner 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)31–7
- Q412:40Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)24–7
- Q36:47Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q312:27Jaxon Smith-Njigba 7 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)14–7
- Q214:57Trey McBride 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)7–7
- Q112:25Jaxon Smith-Njigba 82 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:25Jaxon Smith-Njigba 82 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 ARI · SEA 66% → 80% +15SEA 66% → 80%+15 pts
- Q214:57Trey McBride 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)SEA 7 – 7 ARI · ARI 19% → 36% +17ARI 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q312:27Jaxon Smith-Njigba 7 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 14 – 7 ARI · SEA 61% → 82% +21SEA 61% → 82%+21 pts
- Q36:47Jason Myers 33 Yd Field GoalSEA 17 – 7 ARI · SEA 84% → 90% +7SEA 84% → 90%+7 pts
- Q412:40Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 7 ARI · SEA 94% → >99% +5SEA 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3.5
- ML SEA -218 / ARI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5
- SEA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 67.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -193
- ARI +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 22.0 – 18.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1697 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −98 | −5 | SEA: Drew Lock, usually Sam Darnold · ARI: Jacoby Brissett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +127 Elo | SEA 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 65.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.4 | Points scored | 20.923rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.2 | Points allowed | 28.729th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.2 | Margin | −7.829th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 5.1622nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5722nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–1 | Road vs home | 1–731st of 32 |
| 21st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15175th of 32 |
| 1st of 321697 | Elo rating | 144122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  SEA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–5 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–0 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.