Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAR went from 72% to 70% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 5:30 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing24/32, 257 YDS, 2 INT
- Kimani VidalRushing8 CAR, 23 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing17/25, 157 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Blake CorumRushing11 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving11 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q33:41Puka Nacua 18 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)9–24
- Q310:42Blake Corum 23 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)9–17
- Q20:19Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)9–10
- Q21:55Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q210:06Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q10:04Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q15:42Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:06Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 3 LAR · LAC 33% → 42% +9LAC 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q21:55Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field GoalLAC 9 – 3 LAR · LAC 45% → 55% +10LAC 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q20:19Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)LAC 9 – 10 LAR · LAR 44% → 68% +24LAR 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q310:42Blake Corum 23 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)LAC 9 – 17 LAR · LAR 67% → 87% +20LAR 67% → 87%+20 pts
- Q33:41Puka Nacua 18 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)LAC 9 – 24 LAR · LAR 88% → 98% +9LAR 88% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rams 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -6.5
- ML LAC +215 / LAR -265
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -9
- LAR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- LAR: Elo 78.0%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- LAR -236
- LAC +236 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 19.5 – 26.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +4 | LAC: Justin Herbert · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +220 Elo | LAR 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 77.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 70.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.0 | Points scored | 24.310th of 32 |
| 21st of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 22.714th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−10.2 | Margin | +1.613th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.64 | Yards per play | 5.858th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 4.946th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–217th of 32 |
| 1st of 321557 | Opponent Elo | 15177th of 32 |
| 30th of 321383 | Elo rating | 157011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 0–5–1 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 0–5–1 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.