Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing32/51, 317 YDS, 2 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 125 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing12/27, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- Tank BigsbyRushing14 CAR, 55 YDS
- Darius CooperReceiving3 REC, 33 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:10Kyren Williams 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)24–20
- Q43:59Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)17–20
- Q20:03Darius Cooper 10 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–20
- Q21:55Puka Nacua 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–13
- Q25:44Darius Cooper 18 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–13
- Q210:56Jake Elliott 56 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q12:08Harrison Mevis 40 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:38Jake Elliott 29 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:44Darius Cooper 18 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)LAR 3 – 13 PHI · PHI 50% → 71% +22PHI 50% → 71%+22 pts
- Q21:55Puka Nacua 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 10 – 13 PHI · LAR 27% → 49% +23LAR 27% → 49%+23 pts
- Q20:03Darius Cooper 10 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)LAR 10 – 20 PHI · PHI 51% → 74% +23PHI 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q43:59Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 17 – 20 PHI · LAR <1% → 26% +25LAR <1% → 26%+25 pts
- Q41:10Kyren Williams 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 24 – 20 PHI · LAR 10% → 97% +87LAR 10% → 97%+87 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -4.5
- ML LAR -198 / PHI +164
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -1
- LAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- LAR: Elo 53.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAR -170
- PHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.5 – 19.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +10 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +23 Elo | LAR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 52.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 62.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.3 | Points scored | 18.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 23.016th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −4.722nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326.30 | Yards per play | 5.2714th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1413th of 32 |
| 17th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 4th of 321555 | Opponent Elo | 143031st of 32 |
| 8th of 321569 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–8 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 0–4 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.