Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing12/19, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh AllenRushing10 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving3 REC, 80 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing40/54, 383 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving17 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT1:55Tyler Bass 45 Yd Field Goal37–34
- Q40:05Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)34–34
- Q41:39James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)34–27
- Q47:14Davante Adams 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)27–27
- Q411:28Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Josh Allen Pass to Dalton Kincaid for Two-Point Conversion)27–20
- Q414:16Puka Nacua 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–20
- Q32:45Keon Coleman 7 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT Failed)19–14
- Q310:11Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)13–14
- Q25:09James Cook III 17 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)13–7
- Q28:00Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)6–7
- Q10:10Tyler Bass 23 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q113:23Tyler Bass 49 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:28Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Josh Allen Pass to Dalton Kincaid for Two-Point Conversion)BUF 27 – 20 LAR · BUF 39% → 81% +42BUF 39% → 81%+42 pts
- Q47:14Davante Adams 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)BUF 27 – 27 LAR · LAR 12% → 54% +42LAR 12% → 54%+42 pts
- Q41:39James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 34 – 27 LAR · BUF 48% → >99% +51BUF 48% → >99%+51 pts
- Q40:05Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)BUF 34 – 34 LAR · LAR 0% → 50% +50LAR 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:55Tyler Bass 45 Yd Field GoalBUF 37 – 34 LAR · BUF 48% → 84% +36BUF 48% → 84%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML BUF +154 / LAR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- LAR: Elo 49.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAR -158
- BUF +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.0 – 29.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 55.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | BUF: Josh Allen · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +6 Elo | BUF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 50.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 61.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3231.8 | Points scored | 21.323rd of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 20.88th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+5.0 | Margin | +0.515th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.49 | Yards per play | 6.046th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.47 | Yards allowed per play | 4.182nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 11th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 15524th of 32 |
| 5th of 321634 | Elo rating | 15889th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BUF |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.