Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LV went from 39% to 39% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing23/29, 195 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving8 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing26/44, 295 YDS, 2 TD
- Mike Washington Jr.Rushing6 CAR, 27 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving5 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:11Matt Gay 36 Yd Field Goal35–21
- Q46:34Blake Corum 4 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)35–18
- Q413:12Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–18
- Q414:51Tre Tucker 37 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–12
- Q20:00Matt Gay 27 Yd Field Goal28–6
- Q21:19Kyren Williams 17 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)28–3
- Q24:15Puka Nacua 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)21–3
- Q210:01Davis Allen 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)14–3
- Q10:51Matt Gay 30 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:25Davis Allen 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:25Davis Allen 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)LAR 7 – 0 LV · LAR 60% → 77% +17LAR 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q10:51Matt Gay 30 Yd Field GoalLAR 7 – 3 LV · LV 23% → 30% +7LV 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q210:01Davis Allen 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)LAR 14 – 3 LV · LAR 70% → 86% +16LAR 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q24:15Puka Nacua 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)LAR 21 – 3 LV · LAR 87% → 96% +9LAR 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q413:12Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LAR 28 – 18 LV · LV 1% → 7% +6LV 1% → 7%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rams 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3
- ML LAR -175 / LV +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -2.5
- LAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LAR: Elo 59.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAR -155
- LV +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 25.8 – 22.8 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +41 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Davante Adams |
| Elo ratings | LAR +68 Elo | LAR 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 60.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 27.06th of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 27.026th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.87 | Yards per play | 5.3316th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9929th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 5th of 321535 | Opponent Elo | 150913th of 32 |
| 12th of 321545 | Elo rating | 138927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 1–0 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.