Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/33, 255 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing22 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- Keon ColemanReceiving4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing23/41, 313 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Mike Washington Jr.Rushing9 CAR, 43 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving5 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:32Tre Tucker 44 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)33–30
- Q41:56Tyler Bass 38 Yd Field Goal33–23
- Q44:43James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)30–23
- Q48:07Tre Tucker 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)23–23
- Q413:32Matt Gay 23 Yd Field Goal23–16
- Q36:22Keon Coleman 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)23–13
- Q39:45Tyler Bass 47 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q20:00Matt Gay 27 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q22:14Matt Gay 35 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q27:13Khalil Shakir 9 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)13–7
- Q214:45Tyler Bass 28 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q14:27Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)3–7
- Q110:12Tyler Bass 44 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:27Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)BUF 3 – 7 LV · LV 25% → 43% +17LV 25% → 43%+17 pts
- Q27:13Khalil Shakir 9 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 13 – 7 LV · BUF 63% → 81% +18BUF 63% → 81%+18 pts
- Q36:22Keon Coleman 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 23 – 13 LV · BUF 73% → 91% +18BUF 73% → 91%+18 pts
- Q48:07Tre Tucker 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)BUF 23 – 23 LV · LV 8% → 43% +34LV 8% → 43%+34 pts
- Q44:43James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 30 – 23 LV · BUF 56% → 96% +40BUF 56% → 96%+40 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bills 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -5.5
- ML BUF -258 / LV +210
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7.5
- BUF 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 75.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -229
- LV +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 29.5 – 24.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1653 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Elo ratings | BUF +193 Elo | BUF 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 75.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 69.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.8 | Points scored | 26.47th of 32 |
| 28th of 3228.2 | Points allowed | 25.823rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.6 | Margin | +0.614th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.72 | Yards per play | 5.1617th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1231st of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 148223rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321651 | Elo rating | 139727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.