Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing24/35, 218 YDS, 1 INT
- Bam KnightRushing15 CAR, 80 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving7 REC, 53 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/33, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing10 CAR, 50 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving6 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 43 Yd Field Goal18–16
- Q40:47Colby Parkinson 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Ethan Evans Kick)15–16
- Q49:28Chad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal15–9
- Q36:25Chad Ryland 38 Yd Field Goal12–9
- Q20:46Chad Ryland 22 Yd Field Goal9–9
- Q28:23Blake Corum 15 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–9
- Q214:51Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q15:37Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:41Blake Grupe 44 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:23Blake Corum 15 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ARI 6 – 9 LAR · LAR 72% → 86% +13LAR 72% → 86%+13 pts
- Q36:25Chad Ryland 38 Yd Field GoalARI 12 – 9 LAR · ARI 27% → 38% +11ARI 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q49:28Chad Ryland 27 Yd Field GoalARI 15 – 9 LAR · ARI 52% → 70% +18ARI 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q40:47Colby Parkinson 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Ethan Evans Kick)ARI 15 – 16 LAR · LAR <1% → 75% +75LAR <1% → 75%+75 pts
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 43 Yd Field GoalARI 18 – 16 LAR · ARI 0% → 100% +100ARI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rams 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -12.5
- ML ARI +550 / LAR -800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -11
- LAR 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAR: Elo 82.9%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- LAR -570
- ARI +570 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.5 – 32.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1353 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Jeremiyah Love |
| Elo ratings | LAR +274 Elo | LAR 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 82.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 85.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3221.6 | Points scored | 23.816th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3232.4 | Points allowed | 24.020th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.8 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.51 | Yards per play | 5.995th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.856th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 4th of 321539 | Opponent Elo | 15642nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321354 | Elo rating | 157111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–5 LAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.