Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing19/30, 271 YDS, 3 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing25 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- Sam LaPortaReceiving5 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing29/47, 292 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jeremiyah LoveRushing12 CAR, 22 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:11Trey McBride 9 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)45–21
- Q45:03Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)45–14
- Q31:05Jared Goff 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)38–14
- Q34:22Teagan Quitoriano 13 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)31–14
- Q39:42Jameson Williams 39 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)31–7
- Q20:53Jake Bates 46 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q24:50Jameson Williams 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)21–7
- Q29:30Sam LaPorta 38 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–7
- Q212:22(No Huddle) J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.7–7
- Q15:06Teagan Quitoriano 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:06Teagan Quitoriano 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)DET 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 34% → 52% +19ARI 34% → 52%+19 pts
- Q212:22(No Huddle) J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.DET 7 – 7 ARI · DET 45% → 65% +21DET 45% → 65%+21 pts
- Q29:30Sam LaPorta 38 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 14 – 7 ARI · DET 65% → 82% +17DET 65% → 82%+17 pts
- Q24:50Jameson Williams 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 21 – 7 ARI · DET 82% → 93% +11DET 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q20:53Jake Bates 46 Yd Field GoalDET 24 – 7 ARI · DET 94% → 97% +3DET 94% → 97%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -245 / ARI +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 64.7%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -211
- ARI +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 30.0 – 25.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 55.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −9 | DET: Jared Goff · ARI: Jacoby Brissett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +105 Elo | DET 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.8 | Points scored | 21.822nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.8 | Points allowed | 29.329th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.0 | Margin | −7.529th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 4.4832nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.89 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1429th of 32 |
| 25th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 32 |
| 25th of 321468 | Opponent Elo | 15524th of 32 |
| 13th of 321513 | Elo rating | 138129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.