Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing21/35, 166 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Jeremiyah LoveRushing14 CAR, 63 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving7 REC, 95 YDS
Giants- Jameis WinstonPassing18/29, 250 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Cam SkatteboRushing18 CAR, 58 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Deonte Banks 98 Yd Interception Return24–36
- Q42:11Dominic Zvada 52 Yd Field Goal24–30
- Q31:44Theo Johnson 11 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Najee Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q37:20Elijah Higgins 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)24–19
- Q20:00Chad Ryland 60 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q22:24Malik Nabers 25 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)14–19
- Q24:30Malachi Fields 12 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q214:55Dominic Zvada 50 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q13:05Tyler Allgeier 22 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)14–3
- Q16:36Dominic Zvada 39 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q111:08Marvin Harrison Jr. 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Marvin Harrison Jr. 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 7 – 0 NYG · ARI 53% → 71% +17ARI 53% → 71%+17 pts
- Q24:30Malachi Fields 12 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ARI 14 – 12 NYG · NYG 23% → 41% +18NYG 23% → 41%+18 pts
- Q22:24Malik Nabers 25 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)ARI 14 – 19 NYG · NYG 41% → 64% +24NYG 41% → 64%+24 pts
- Q37:20Elijah Higgins 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 24 – 19 NYG · ARI 44% → 72% +28ARI 44% → 72%+28 pts
- Q31:44Theo Johnson 11 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Najee Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)ARI 24 – 27 NYG · NYG 26% → 62% +36NYG 26% → 62%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -2.5
- ML ARI -130 / NYG +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -1.5
- ARI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 43.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -115
- NYG +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 23.0 – 20.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −5 | −29 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett · NYG: Jameis Winston, usually Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +43 Elo | NYG 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 56.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.0 | Points scored | 15.328th of 32 |
| 25th of 3227.0 | Points allowed | 18.39th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.0 | Margin | −3.019th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.54 | Yards per play | 4.5030th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8427th of 32 |
| 7th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321576 | Opponent Elo | 143130th of 32 |
| 27th of 321409 | Elo rating | 144022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ARI |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 NYG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.