Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing32/52, 412 YDS, 1 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing15 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving6 REC, 102 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing29/41, 329 YDS, 2 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing20 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving14 REC, 192 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:38Sam LaPorta 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)26–32
- Q48:59Ryan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal19–32
- Q32:47Chuba Hubbard 2 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)19–29
- Q36:21Jake Bates 26 Yd Field Goal19–22
- Q39:33Tetairoa McMillan 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)16–22
- Q20:00Jake Bates 41 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q20:28Ryan Fitzgerald 47 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q22:14Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)13–13
- Q28:08Tetairoa McMillan 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)6–13
- Q212:37Jake Bates 43 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q11:50Chuba Hubbard 15 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)3–7
- Q112:05Jake Bates 54 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:50Chuba Hubbard 15 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)DET 3 – 7 CAR · CAR 31% → 50% +19CAR 31% → 50%+19 pts
- Q28:08Tetairoa McMillan 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)DET 6 – 13 CAR · CAR 43% → 61% +19CAR 43% → 61%+19 pts
- Q22:14Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 13 – 13 CAR · DET 36% → 60% +24DET 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q39:33Tetairoa McMillan 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)DET 16 – 22 CAR · CAR 42% → 65% +23CAR 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q32:47Chuba Hubbard 2 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)DET 19 – 29 CAR · CAR 57% → 84% +27CAR 57% → 84%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -192 / CAR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- DET: Elo 60.7%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- CAR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 28.0 – 24.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | DET: Jared Goff · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +76 Elo | DET 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3231.0 | Points scored | 29.75th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.7 | Points allowed | 27.727th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +2.012th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.55 | Yards per play | 6.016th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.79 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4920th of 32 |
| 21st of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 151610th of 32 |
| 12th of 321544 | Elo rating | 142624th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.