Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing22/37, 204 YDS, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing5 CAR, 26 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving1 REC, 57 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing23/30, 272 YDS, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- Xavier WorthyReceiving7 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:52Harrison Butker 30 Yd Field Goal6–22
- Q310:44Cameron Dicker 30 Yd Field Goal6–19
- Q20:02Harrison Butker 50 Yd Field Goal3–19
- Q21:49Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)3–16
- Q11:33Cameron Dicker 23 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q17:21Kenneth Walker III 33 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)0–9
- Q111:20Harrison Butker 44 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20Harrison Butker 44 Yd Field GoalLAC 0 – 3 KC · KC 77% → 82% +5KC 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q17:21Kenneth Walker III 33 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)LAC 0 – 9 KC · KC 82% → 91% +9KC 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q11:33Cameron Dicker 23 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 9 KC · LAC 9% → 14% +4LAC 9% → 14%+4 pts
- Q21:49Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)LAC 3 – 16 KC · KC 86% → 95% +9KC 86% → 95%+9 pts
- Q20:02Harrison Butker 50 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 19 KC · KC 96% → 98% +2KC 96% → 98%+2 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Chiefs 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- KC -7.5
- ML LAC +330 / KC -425
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -9
- KC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- KC: Elo 78.4%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -349
- LAC +349 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 17.0 – 24.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Tre' Harris |
| Elo ratings | KC +224 Elo | KC 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 78.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 77.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.8 | Points scored | 29.54th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.8 | Points allowed | 19.35th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−9.0 | Margin | +10.32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 324.75 | Yards per play | 6.542nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.03 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321540 | Opponent Elo | 144930th of 32 |
| 28th of 321397 | Elo rating | 157510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 4–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–4 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.