Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAC went from 38% to 34% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing21/35, 384 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Woody MarksRushing18 CAR, 70 YDS
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving4 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing13/23, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing13 CAR, 60 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving1 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:20Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field Goal44–22
- Q44:19Derius Davis 15 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Cameron Dicker Kick)41–22
- Q48:50Ka'imi Fairbairn 31 Yd Field Goal41–15
- Q412:47Quentin Johnston 58 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–15
- Q414:12Kayshon Boutte 63 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)38–9
- Q38:16Nico Collins 13 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)31–9
- Q20:31Kayshon Boutte 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)24–9
- Q24:28Tank Dell 63 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–9
- Q25:11Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q28:13Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q13:12Ka'imi Fairbairn 56 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q16:14Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:16Xavier Hutchinson 17 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:16Xavier Hutchinson 17 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 LAC · HOU 66% → 81% +15HOU 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q28:13Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 6 LAC · LAC 19% → 26% +7LAC 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q25:11Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 9 LAC · LAC 26% → 34% +9LAC 26% → 34%+9 pts
- Q24:28Tank Dell 63 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 17 – 9 LAC · HOU 66% → 84% +18HOU 66% → 84%+18 pts
- Q20:31Kayshon Boutte 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 24 – 9 LAC · HOU 84% → 95% +10HOU 84% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Texans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -230 / LAC +190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -198
- LAC +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 23.0 – 17.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +6 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Jaylin Noel |
| Elo ratings | HOU +80 Elo | HOU 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 14.132nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 25.022nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −10.932nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 4.6930th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3821st of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15601st of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 136929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 0–6–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 0–6–1 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.