Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing26/34, 261 YDS, 1 TD
- Woody MarksRushing15 CAR, 62 YDS
- Xavier HutchinsonReceiving4 REC, 65 YDS
Titans- Cam WardPassing23/36, 170 YDS, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 52 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving6 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:09Jaylin Noel 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)26–3
- Q36:37C.J. Stroud 2 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)19–3
- Q21:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal12–3
- Q26:56Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q213:33Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q12:22Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:39Joey Slye 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:39Joey Slye 30 Yd Field GoalHOU 0 – 3 TEN · TEN 29% → 36% +7TEN 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q12:22Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 3 TEN · HOU 62% → 70% +8HOU 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q213:33Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 6 – 3 TEN · HOU 69% → 76% +7HOU 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q26:56Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 Yd Field GoalHOU 9 – 3 TEN · HOU 76% → 83% +7HOU 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q36:37C.J. Stroud 2 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 19 – 3 TEN · HOU 90% → 98% +8HOU 90% → 98%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -298 / TEN +240
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.8%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -256
- TEN +256 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 22.0 – 15.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1291 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +4 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +171 Elo | HOU 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.0 | Points scored | 13.831st of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 20.89th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.3 | Margin | −7.027th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.41 | Yards per play | 4.8626th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2411th of 32 |
| 22nd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–223rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 146327th of 32 |
| 15th of 321491 | Elo rating | 129132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  HOU |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | — |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–1 TEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.