Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing16/27, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing11 CAR, 33 YDS
- Xavier HutchinsonReceiving3 REC, 51 YDS
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing24/36, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing23 CAR, 68 YDS
- Josh DownsReceiving5 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:16Spencer Shrader 53 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q41:48Woody Marks 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–16
- Q47:33Ka'imi Fairbairn 24 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q412:43Spencer Shrader 37 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q21:03Spencer Shrader 58 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q24:30Foster Moreau 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–10
- Q211:08Keenan Allen 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–10
- Q14:28Spencer Shrader 39 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:08Keenan Allen 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)HOU 0 – 10 IND · IND 57% → 76% +19IND 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q24:30Foster Moreau 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 10 IND · HOU 22% → 42% +20HOU 22% → 42%+20 pts
- Q412:43Spencer Shrader 37 Yd Field GoalHOU 7 – 16 IND · IND 79% → 88% +10IND 79% → 88%+10 pts
- Q41:48Woody Marks 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 17 – 16 IND · HOU 2% → 65% +63HOU 2% → 65%+63 pts
- Q40:16Spencer Shrader 53 Yd Field GoalHOU 17 – 19 IND · IND 17% → 97% +80IND 17% → 97%+80 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -120 / IND +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- IND +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 22.0 – 20.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +27 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +54 Elo | HOU 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 27.48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.4 | Points allowed | 24.221st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.4 | Margin | +3.210th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.788th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3417th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 13th of 321535 | Elo rating | 142923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  HOU |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–9 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–1 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.