Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing20/31, 207 YDS, 2 TD
- Chase BrownRushing20 CAR, 80 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving5 REC, 95 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing30/55, 353 YDS
- C.J. StroudRushing3 CAR, 29 YDS
- Dalton SchultzReceiving12 REC, 140 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:16Evan McPherson 57 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q30:35Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q33:03Ja'Marr Chase 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)17–3
- Q312:28Evan McPherson 51 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q21:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 37 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q23:29Ja'Marr Chase 32 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:29Ja'Marr Chase 32 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 HOU · CIN 44% → 67% +23CIN 44% → 67%+23 pts
- Q21:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 37 Yd Field GoalCIN 7 – 3 HOU · HOU 32% → 42% +10HOU 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q312:28Evan McPherson 51 Yd Field GoalCIN 10 – 3 HOU · CIN 59% → 70% +10CIN 59% → 70%+10 pts
- Q33:03Ja'Marr Chase 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 17 – 3 HOU · CIN 76% → 93% +18CIN 76% → 93%+18 pts
- Q30:35Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field GoalCIN 17 – 6 HOU · HOU 5% → 10% +5HOU 5% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3
- ML CIN +124 / HOU -148
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -137
- CIN +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 21.3 – 24.3 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | +11 | CIN: Joe Burrow · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +115 Elo | HOU 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.4 | Points scored | 23.813th of 32 |
| 30th of 3228.9 | Points allowed | 17.42nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−4.6 | Margin | +6.46th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 5.1124th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.785th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 150614th of 32 |
| 17th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15838th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.