Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing32/45, 335 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing19 CAR, 62 YDS, 3 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving17 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing21/31, 347 YDS, 2 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing10 CAR, 24 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:40CeeDee Lamb 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)34–30
- Q42:23Woody Marks 6 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)27–30
- Q411:17Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–23
- Q36:49Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)20–23
- Q310:50Nico Collins 22 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)13–23
- Q312:55Javonte Williams 8 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–16
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 54 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q22:05Ka'imi Fairbairn 39 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q212:30Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q11:49Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q15:10Brandon Aubrey 39 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:01Nico Collins 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:50Nico Collins 22 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)DAL 13 – 23 HOU · HOU 67% → 87% +20HOU 67% → 87%+20 pts
- Q36:49Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 20 – 23 HOU · DAL 12% → 33% +21DAL 12% → 33%+21 pts
- Q411:17Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 27 – 23 HOU · DAL 30% → 69% +39DAL 30% → 69%+39 pts
- Q42:23Woody Marks 6 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)DAL 27 – 30 HOU · HOU 11% → 84% +73HOU 11% → 84%+73 pts
- Q40:40CeeDee Lamb 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 34 – 30 HOU · DAL 3% → >99% +96DAL 3% → >99%+96 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3
- ML DAL +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -143
- DAL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 22.8 – 25.8 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | +10 | DAL: Dak Prescott · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +114 Elo | HOU 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3229.3 | Points scored | 18.026th of 32 |
| 26th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 25.019th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+2.0 | Margin | −7.027th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 4.8426th of 32 |
| 28th of 326.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3616th of 32 |
| 17th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–221st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321465 | Opponent Elo | 15505th of 32 |
| 24th of 321429 | Elo rating | 151913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–4 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.