Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing24/34, 312 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Woody MarksRushing15 CAR, 56 YDS
- Jaylin NoelReceiving4 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing24/41, 306 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing11 CAR, 55 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving5 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 49 Yd Field Goal34–31
- Q41:55Cam Little 60 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q411:26Travis Hunter 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)31–28
- Q30:50Jawhar Jordan 25 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)31–21
- Q32:34Nate Boerkircher 1 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)24–21
- Q39:21Jaylin Noel 13 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)24–14
- Q20:08Foster Moreau 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–14
- Q20:55Bhayshul Tuten 2 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–14
- Q24:16Ka'imi Fairbairn 25 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q26:47Bhayshul Tuten 27 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–7
- Q15:13Foster Moreau 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:34Nate Boerkircher 1 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)HOU 24 – 21 JAX · JAX 14% → 40% +26JAX 14% → 40%+26 pts
- Q30:50Jawhar Jordan 25 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 31 – 21 JAX · HOU 61% → 87% +26HOU 61% → 87%+26 pts
- Q411:26Travis Hunter 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)HOU 31 – 28 JAX · JAX 9% → 36% +28JAX 9% → 36%+28 pts
- Q41:55Cam Little 60 Yd Field GoalHOU 31 – 31 JAX · JAX 15% → 51% +36JAX 15% → 51%+36 pts
- Q40:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 49 Yd Field GoalHOU 34 – 31 JAX · HOU 47% → 100% +53HOU 47% → 100%+53 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jaguars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -2.5
- ML HOU +120 / JAX -142
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -5.5
- JAX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.0 pts
- JAX: Elo 68.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- JAX -134
- HOU +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 19.5 – 22.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Elo ratings | JAX +134 Elo | JAX 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 68.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 57.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 24.612th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 14.02nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +10.62nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.38 | Yards per play | 5.7111th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.99 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5421st of 32 |
| 29th of 321457 | Opponent Elo | 15338th of 32 |
| 15th of 321511 | Elo rating | 16405th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 JAX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.