Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing21/40, 220 YDS, 1 TD
- Dameon PierceRushing11 CAR, 14 YDS
- Darius CooperReceiving2 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing24/39, 331 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bhayshul TutenRushing22 CAR, 72 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving6 REC, 124 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Cam Little 57 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q40:08Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q43:20Parker Washington 27 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little PAT Failed)14–16
- Q37:11Cam Little 34 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q25:31Darius Cooper 62 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q28:46Will Shipley 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q15:26Parker Washington 51 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:46Will Shipley 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 7 JAX · PHI 14% → 30% +16PHI 14% → 30%+16 pts
- Q25:31Darius Cooper 62 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 7 JAX · PHI 30% → 52% +22PHI 30% → 52%+22 pts
- Q43:20Parker Washington 27 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little PAT Failed)PHI 14 – 16 JAX · JAX 18% → 76% +57JAX 18% → 76%+57 pts
- Q40:08Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field GoalPHI 17 – 16 JAX · PHI <1% → 90% +90PHI <1% → 90%+90 pts
- Q40:00Cam Little 57 Yd Field GoalPHI 17 – 19 JAX · JAX 0% → 100% +100JAX 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -7.5
- ML PHI +285 / JAX -360
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -6
- JAX 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- JAX: Elo 69.8%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- JAX -295
- PHI +295 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 17.0 – 24.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +8 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +145 Elo | JAX 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 67.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 74.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.8 | Points scored | 26.012th of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 13.32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.5 | Margin | +12.82nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.69 | Yards per play | 5.6313th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9329th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321473 | Opponent Elo | 15356th of 32 |
| 17th of 321487 | Elo rating | 16325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PHI |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.