Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing18/23, 227 YDS, 1 TD
- Bhayshul TutenRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS
- Brenton StrangeReceiving7 REC, 95 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing39/54, 428 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Chase BrownRushing9 CAR, 10 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving11 REC, 157 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:28Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)22–17
- Q46:35Chris Rodriguez Jr. 25 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–10
- Q33:00Cam Little 54 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q38:44Mike Gesicki 15 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)13–10
- Q21:23Brian Thomas Jr. 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)13–3
- Q24:16Cam Little 28 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q210:03Evan McPherson 29 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q12:18Cam Little 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:23Brian Thomas Jr. 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 13 – 3 CIN · JAX 56% → 78% +22JAX 56% → 78%+22 pts
- Q38:44Mike Gesicki 15 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)JAX 13 – 10 CIN · CIN 18% → 42% +24CIN 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q33:00Cam Little 54 Yd Field GoalJAX 16 – 10 CIN · JAX 60% → 73% +12JAX 60% → 73%+12 pts
- Q46:35Chris Rodriguez Jr. 25 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)JAX 22 – 10 CIN · JAX 86% → 99% +13JAX 86% → 99%+13 pts
- Q43:28Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)JAX 22 – 17 CIN · CIN <1% → 10% +10CIN <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -2.5
- ML JAX +124 / CIN -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -1.5
- CIN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 43.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -128
- JAX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 24.5 – 27.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +26 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +43 Elo | JAX 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 26.712th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212.0 | Points allowed | 21.012th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+15.3 | Margin | +5.79th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.51 | Yards per play | 5.4512th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.84 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6522nd of 32 |
| 17th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321548 | Opponent Elo | 147122nd of 32 |
| 5th of 321613 | Elo rating | 151614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  JAX |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 0–2 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.