Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing28/37, 282 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing13 CAR, 61 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving9 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing19/34, 292 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing17 CAR, 127 YDS
- Darnell WashingtonReceiving3 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:15Chris Boswell 33 Yd Field Goal27–30
- Q48:45Chris Boswell 36 Yd Field Goal27–27
- Q413:29Mike Gesicki 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)27–24
- Q32:43DK Metcalf 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)20–24
- Q38:22Evan McPherson 38 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q20:34Tee Higgins 28 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)17–17
- Q27:05Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q210:16Evan McPherson 50 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q10:52Ben Skowronek 23 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–14
- Q15:50Ja'Marr Chase 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q113:10Roman Wilson 38 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:52Ben Skowronek 23 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 7 – 14 PIT · PIT 40% → 60% +20PIT 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q20:34Tee Higgins 28 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 17 – 17 PIT · CIN 34% → 58% +24CIN 34% → 58%+24 pts
- Q32:43DK Metcalf 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 20 – 24 PIT · PIT 31% → 62% +31PIT 31% → 62%+31 pts
- Q413:29Mike Gesicki 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 27 – 24 PIT · CIN 35% → 70% +36CIN 35% → 70%+36 pts
- Q42:15Chris Boswell 33 Yd Field GoalCIN 27 – 30 PIT · PIT 48% → 82% +34PIT 48% → 82%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML CIN -185 / PIT +154
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -1
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -160
- PIT +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 23.0 – 19.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | +10 | CIN: Joe Burrow · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +24 Elo | CIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.4 | Points scored | 23.415th of 32 |
| 30th of 3228.9 | Points allowed | 22.817th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−4.6 | Margin | +0.618th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 5.2617th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4619th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 8th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 15194th of 32 |
| 14th of 321535 | Elo rating | 149017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.