New York Giants at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.J. McCarthyPassing20/28, 252 YDS
- Cam SkatteboRushing17 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik NabersReceiving7 REC, 111 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing17/28, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- Woody MarksRushing19 CAR, 66 YDS
- Dalton SchultzReceiving5 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT7:25Devin Singletary 30 Yd Rush27–21
- Q40:52Xavier Hutchinson 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)21–21
- Q48:55Cam Skattebo 16 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)21–14
- Q20:34Marvin Harrison Jr. 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (C.J. Stroud Pass to Cade Stover for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q23:32Jameis Winston 1 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)14–6
- Q29:03Ka'imi Fairbairn 57 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q16:26Tyrone Tracy Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–3
- Q111:40Ka'imi Fairbairn 58 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:32Jameis Winston 1 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)NYG 14 – 6 HOU · NYG 30% → 52% +23NYG 30% → 52%+23 pts
- Q20:34Marvin Harrison Jr. 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (C.J. Stroud Pass to Cade Stover for Two-Point Conversion)NYG 14 – 14 HOU · HOU 45% → 72% +27HOU 45% → 72%+27 pts
- Q48:55Cam Skattebo 16 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)NYG 21 – 14 HOU · NYG 37% → 79% +42NYG 37% → 79%+42 pts
- Q40:52Xavier Hutchinson 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)NYG 21 – 21 HOU · HOU <1% → 54% +54HOU <1% → 54%+54 pts
- OT7:25Devin Singletary 30 Yd RushNYG 27 – 21 HOU · NYG 39% → 78% +40NYG 39% → 78%+40 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Texans 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -10
- ML NYG +380 / HOU -500
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7.5
- HOU 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 74.6%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -391
- NYG +391 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 16.3 – 26.3 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −41 | +10 | NYG: J.J. McCarthy, usually Jaxson Dart · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +187 Elo | HOU 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 79.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 75.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 79.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.7 | Points scored | 24.013th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 23.820th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.03 | Yards per play | 5.6611th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1814th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–1–1 | Road vs home | 0–325th of 32 |
| 31st of 321407 | Opponent Elo | 148225th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321436 | Elo rating | 153614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.