New York Giants at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jameis WinstonPassing33/54, 326 YDS, 3 TD
- Cam SkatteboRushing13 CAR, 59 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving11 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing17/25, 199 YDS
- Jayden DanielsRushing9 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:43Malik Nabers 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)27–27
- Q47:20Isaiah Likely 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)20–27
- Q411:05Jayden Daniels 26 Yd Rush (Jayden Daniels Pass to Terry McLaurin for Two-Point Conversion)13–27
- Q30:44Isaiah Likely 3 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)13–19
- Q37:47Jayden Daniels 38 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens Kick)6–19
- Q310:54Dominic Zvada 56 Yd Field Goal6–12
- Q21:02Drew Stevens 40 Yd Field Goal3–12
- Q28:57Drew Stevens 28 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q10:55Dominic Zvada 51 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q113:00Jacory Croskey-Merritt 33 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:00Jacory Croskey-Merritt 33 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens PAT Failed)NYG 0 – 6 WSH · WSH 61% → 75% +14WSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q37:47Jayden Daniels 38 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens Kick)NYG 6 – 19 WSH · WSH 79% → 93% +15WSH 79% → 93%+15 pts
- Q30:44Isaiah Likely 3 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)NYG 13 – 19 WSH · NYG 4% → 19% +15NYG 4% → 19%+15 pts
- Q411:05Jayden Daniels 26 Yd Rush (Jayden Daniels Pass to Terry McLaurin for Two-Point Conversion)NYG 13 – 27 WSH · WSH 84% → 99% +14WSH 84% → 99%+14 pts
- Q41:43Malik Nabers 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)NYG 27 – 27 WSH · NYG <1% → 48% +48NYG <1% → 48%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -3.5
- ML NYG +154 / WSH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -161
- NYG +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 19.0 – 22.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −25 | +37 | NYG: Jameis Winston, usually Jaxson Dart · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +31 Elo | WSH 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.5 | Points scored | 22.016th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 30.530th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −8.530th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.68 | Yards per play | 4.8427th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6724th of 32 |
| 22nd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321416 | Opponent Elo | 151511th of 32 |
| 20th of 321468 | Elo rating | 140128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYG |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.