Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing19/34, 143 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing20 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- Laquon TreadwellReceiving5 REC, 42 YDS
Commanders- Athan KaliakmanisPassing15/33, 186 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Marcus MariotaRushing1 CAR, 35 YDS
- Dyami BrownReceiving3 REC, 65 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:48Spencer Shrader 44 Yd Field Goal30–13
- Q411:38Daniel Jones 4 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)27–13
- Q37:03Spencer Shrader 52 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q310:39Treylon Burks 47 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Drew Stevens Kick)17–13
- Q312:45Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)17–6
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 48 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q23:23Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–6
- Q16:21Drew Stevens 29 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q112:57Drew Stevens 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:23Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 7 – 6 WSH · IND 42% → 65% +23IND 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 48 Yd Field GoalIND 10 – 6 WSH · IND 65% → 74% +9IND 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q312:45Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 17 – 6 WSH · IND 74% → 90% +16IND 74% → 90%+16 pts
- Q310:39Treylon Burks 47 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Drew Stevens Kick)IND 17 – 13 WSH · WSH 9% → 26% +17WSH 9% → 26%+17 pts
- Q411:38Daniel Jones 4 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 27 – 13 WSH · IND 88% → 99% +10IND 88% → 99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML IND -225 / WSH +185
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- IND: Elo 57.0%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 25.5 – 21.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | −11 | IND: Daniel Jones · WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +49 Elo | IND 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 57.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 65.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 25.013th of 32 |
| 29th of 3230.3 | Points allowed | 30.731st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.3 | Margin | −5.724th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 4.7327th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.49 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3630th of 32 |
| 6th of 321546 | Opponent Elo | 15438th of 32 |
| 21st of 321445 | Elo rating | 143123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  IND |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.