New Orleans Saints at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing16/30, 144 YDS, 3 TD
- Kendre MillerRushing20 CAR, 70 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving4 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- J.J. McCarthyPassing11/21, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- J.J. McCarthyRushing2 CAR, 26 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving12 REC, 165 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:04Dominic Zvada 41 Yd Field Goal34–27
- Q45:06Isaiah Likely 24 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–24
- Q47:00Tyrone Tracy Jr. 5 Yd Rush (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion)34–18
- Q411:31Chris Olave 18 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)34–10
- Q31:12Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal27–10
- Q35:43Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)24–10
- Q312:21Alvin Kamara 31 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)17–10
- Q20:01Bryce Lance 2 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–10
- Q21:18Daniel Carlson 58 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q22:27Dominic Zvada 34 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q15:14Tyrone Tracy Jr. 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:14Tyrone Tracy Jr. 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)NO 0 – 7 NYG · NYG 52% → 70% +18NYG 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q21:18Daniel Carlson 58 Yd Field GoalNO 3 – 10 NYG · NO 18% → 26% +8NO 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q20:01Bryce Lance 2 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)NO 10 – 10 NYG · NO 26% → 49% +23NO 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q312:21Alvin Kamara 31 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)NO 17 – 10 NYG · NO 49% → 73% +24NO 49% → 73%+24 pts
- Q35:43Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)NO 24 – 10 NYG · NO 77% → 93% +16NO 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYG -1.5
- ML NO -108 / NYG -112
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -5
- NYG 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +16.4 pts
- NYG: Elo 66.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYG -107
- NO +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 22.5 – 24.0 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | −5 | — | Key absences: Chris Olave |
| Elo ratings | NYG +121 Elo | NYG 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 66.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYG 51.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 21.821st of 32 |
| 31st of 3230.2 | Points allowed | 21.210th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.6 | Margin | +0.613th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.82 | Yards per play | 4.7325th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6022nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 7th of 321534 | Opponent Elo | 140031st of 32 |
| 24th of 321410 | Elo rating | 146918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–0 NYG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.