Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kyler MurrayPassing24/30, 229 YDS, 1 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing25 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing16/25, 96 YDS, 2 INT
- Kendre MillerRushing10 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris OlaveReceiving4 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:01Will Reichard 55 Yd Field Goal23–13
- Q414:06Aaron Jones Sr. 8 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)20–13
- Q32:34Jonas Sanker 87 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Carlson PAT Failed)13–13
- Q312:06Justin Jefferson 15 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)13–7
- Q20:00Will Reichard 54 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q28:23Kendre Miller 2 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q19:04Will Reichard 40 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:23Kendre Miller 2 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)MIN 3 – 7 NO · NO 35% → 57% +22NO 35% → 57%+22 pts
- Q20:00Will Reichard 54 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 7 NO · MIN 41% → 52% +11MIN 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q312:06Justin Jefferson 15 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 13 – 7 NO · MIN 51% → 75% +24MIN 51% → 75%+24 pts
- Q32:34Jonas Sanker 87 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Carlson PAT Failed)MIN 13 – 13 NO · NO 21% → 46% +25NO 21% → 46%+25 pts
- Q414:06Aaron Jones Sr. 8 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 20 – 13 NO · MIN 54% → 84% +31MIN 54% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -135 / NO +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +24.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -134
- NO +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 22.0 – 19.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1652 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +40 | −2 | MIN: Kyler Murray, usually J.J. McCarthy · NO: Tyler Shough (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +237 Elo | MIN 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.5 | Points scored | 26.310th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212.8 | Points allowed | 32.032nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.8 | Margin | −5.825th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.40 | Yards per play | 5.0420th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.86 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8127th of 32 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 0–223rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321652 | Elo rating | 142124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.